How VRDCT works

The claim you trade, the evidence that resolves it, and the capital behind the payout.

Outcome claims

A market isolates a specified event, such as FDA approval of a named drug for an exact indication. A complete set contains one YES and one NO backed by one unit of USDC.

Final result	YES claim	NO claim
YES	$1	$0
NO	$0	$1
INVALID	50¢	50¢

The combined payout is $1, not $2. Trading prices reflect orders and inventory; they are not established clinical success probabilities.

Browse markets

Rules & settlement

Final terms must name the drug, indication, application or clinical condition, evidence hierarchy, cutoff, and treatment of delays, disputes and invalid results. A sponsor target is not automatically a trading expiry.

An optimistic oracle assertion can be disputed. Final payout depends on the final onchain result. Research drafts are uncommitted and cannot resolve a market or pay a claim.

The native ERC20 v1 review candidate rejects premature NO/INVALID assertions and reopens rejected assertions rather than selecting the opposite result. This candidate has not been launched through this website.

Orders & liquidity

Opposing buyers can collectively supply the $1 behind a new pair. Buying an existing token transfers ownership without creating another pair. Complete sets can merge to release their backing before final settlement.

A liquidity provider bridges traders who arrive at different times. A constant-product pool holds YES and NO; trades change its reserves and execution prices. VLP is designed as a capped liquidity cohort with inventory risk and settlement-linked cash exits.

Fees depend on actual executions, and inventory losses can outweigh them. The virtual sandbox uses the native 50-bps smaller-leg fee fixture, split 70/30 between provider and protocol. Production rates remain unapproved. No deposit campaign or shared vault is live through this app.

VLP mechanism Execution lab

Token rights

An event claim exposes its holder to a specified milestone. It does not grant company shares, royalties, drug IP, a license or private equity.

Program financing requires separate rights, contracts, funding and an appropriate operating route. This app does not offer private placements or finance a drug program.

Current status

Configured chain: Base Sepolia (84532). Wallet transactions: disabled. Source availability does not establish deployment.

registryNot deployed / not configured

exchangeNot deployed / not configured

resolverNot deployed / not configured

usdc0x036CbD53842c5426634e7929541eC2318f3dCF7e

Resolution views show committed rule bytes, hashes, identifiers and oracle state when supplied. Research drafts have no executable cutoff. A published model estimate requires a timestamp, model name, joined catalyst ID, sources and reasoning. No computed agent forecasts or base-rate estimates are published here.

Legacy interfaces and test-network limits

The existing conditional-token demo is separate from native ERC20 settlement. Compound markets use parent outcome tokens as collateral and require child-to-parent-to-USDC redemption. A child can be worthless if its parent resolves against the branch, regardless of its own result.

The importer rejects fictional/manual seed evidence, mismatched rule hashes and future or unsourced model records. Importing a record does not list a market or enable wallet writes.

Base Sepolia oracle support needs a separate review. The referenced test oracle uses a deprecated identifier, and UMA does not provide its DVM or Oracle UI there. No funded oracle lifecycle has been verified.

Developer API

The current website API reads the catalog and prepares block-bound FPMM quotes. Live quotes verify chain freshness and factory identity; buying requires the committed canonical rule bytes.

GET /api/healthGET /api/marketsGET /api/markets/:idGET /api/calendarPOST /api/quotesPOST /api/orders/prepare

Order preparation returns unsigned calldata. It does not hold keys, sign, broadcast or take custody. Writes default off. Any approval is confirmed separately, then preparation and simulation run again.

{
  "marketId": "0x<32-byte-question-id>",
  "side": "YES",
  "direction": "BUY",
  "amount": "25.00",
  "slippageBps": 100
}

Amounts use exact six-decimal units. Quotes expire after 15 seconds. The server preparation route covers direct USDC; conditional markets use their parent-token flow. Simulation does not guarantee inclusion at the same state.

Risk & limitations

A wrong outcome can lose the full premium. A drug-event hedge may not track the stock price.
Thin liquidity, price impact, fees and spreads change realized results.
Disputes, ambiguous evidence, delayed decisions and invalid outcomes affect settlement.
Contract, wallet, stablecoin, network and operational failures can cause losses. Legacy CTF approvals may cover all positions until revoked.
Research is a dated snapshot. Program status, sponsor targets and eligibility need review before listing.
This app does not establish production deployment, operating permission, an outside audit, funded monitoring, LP commitments or real wallet rehearsal.