Denifanstat · AURORA
This new U.S. Phase 3 trial is separate from Ascletis' already reported acne trial and extension. The September sponsor update anticipated AURORA screening in October 2026. denifanstat — phase 3 study in Acne Vulgaris. NCT07863193 lists Proportion of participants achieving EGSS success, defined as a score of 0 (clear) or 1 (almost clear) with at least a 2-point decrease from their baseline score as a primary outcome (Week 12). Registry status: recruiting.
What matters
Track what the company has actually announced, the study or asset involved, and the evidence needed to confirm the milestone.
- Specify the exact future analysis/cohort and verify that it remains unpublished before creating any tradeable question.
- Registry design and recruitment status are not evidence of efficacy or regulatory approval.
- Primary completion is not a guaranteed topline publication or regulatory decision date.
- Registry primary completion: 2027-08 (estimated); verify independently before using it as a catalyst date.
- An active study record does not establish that its primary outcome is still unannounced. Review sponsor disclosures before promotion to a future catalyst.
- The registry lists 3 primary outcome measures. A market must explicitly specify which endpoint or conjunction resolves YES; this card highlights one measure only.
Primary evidence
New U.S. Phase 3 program — date unconfirmed
Potential outcome market
Will denifanstat meet the prespecified primary endpoint in NCT07863193 by a listing deadline still to be specified?
This event is research, not a listed market. A market needs a precise question, resolution rules and liquidity before trading opens.